Prognosis

A few posts back, I promised a prognosis for the rest of the season, so here it is. The Rockets will make the playoffs, but lose in the first round yet again.

Why so dour a prediction? The Rockets are a good team on paper, but the chemistry is not there for greatness. The reasons are threefold. Ron Artest, Tracy McGrady and injuries.

1. Ron Artest: Ron is a tough, determined player that will do almost anything to win. Almost anything. The one thing with which he has trouble is playing within a team framework. He has a reputation for freelancing. Some will say he tries to take too much onto himself and others say he is just a hotdog who has no faith in anyone but himself. Since I don't know him personally, I'll leave that argument alone and just state the circumstantial evidence that makes the accusations ring true. Despite spending part or all of five seasons with a good Indiana team, he has an overall losing record. Everywhere he has been (before Houston), he has been in trouble and every locker room he has graced has faced discord. Coincidence? I, for one, don't think so.

2. Tracy McGrady: An anonymous player in the Rockets clubhouse said that Tracy enjoyed the status of superstar, but did not want to pay the price. Again, I don't know Tracy, so let's examine the evidence. He has been at about half speed all season due to a knee injury that still lingers. A few games ago, he had a resounding slam dunk that he said "gave him back his confidence." My question is, why hasn't he been testing that knee all this time trying to make it do all it could do? He has been reticent to go all out because of the pain. Let's be kind and say that ain't "old-school." Thousands of players over the years have given everything they had despite the pain for a tiny fraction of the money McGrady makes. It's time to gut it up or shut it up.

3. Injuries: All season long I have been predicting greatness for the home team once they healed up and got all their starters on the floor at the same time. Well, they are as healed as they are going to get this season and the results have been mixed to say the least. Injuries robbed the team of any chance for a good training camp and to get a leg up on the league in the early games. Battier, Artest and McGrady remain at less than full strength and with the NBA grind, are not likely to get any better before playoff time.

Lest I sound too pessimistic, I'll state some positives that may make my prognostication erroneous. Rick Adelman has kept the team together and juggled a dozen different lineups from one game to the next while amassing a winning record and keeping the team in the playoff chase. Daryl Morey has accumulated a fine group of reserves that have stepped up and made their presence known around the league. Yao Ming is a true superstar and has acted like it in every regard. Luis Scola is growing into an excellent power forward. Rafer Alston has been steady and consistent. Actually, there's more good news to talk about than bad.

I love the Rockets and nobody wants my prognosis to be wrong more than me.