Defensive Shortcomings

0-3 is a lousy start. The reason seems ridiculously transparent. The Rockets can't stop anybody. Why not?

In the first half of last season, the team made it's mark with a determined defense and a team attitude that nobody was going to bully them. Yao may have been gone and Tracy couldn't play, but the Rockets were going to play hard-nosed D, if nothing else. I've been a devoted fan of the Rockets since they came here from San Diego, but I fell in love with that team. Then came "the trade."

Carl Landry went away and Kevin Martin came in. Landry had his issues, but he played with heart. He fit in with the team and inspired others. Martin has never been known for his defense and just never seemed to mesh with the Rocket's style of play. This year, he's averaged 25 ppg, but has shot only 41% (under 30% from behind the arc) , with only one steal in three games. Opposing guards have burned the Rockets to the ground.

If Martin doesn't knuckle down pretty soon, Courtney Lee will deserve a shot. At least he likes to play defense. Offense is fun to watch and sells tickets, but defense wins championships - and inspires teammates. That's my take.

It's Here!

The regular season begins in a couple of hours and I can tell you, it's about damn time! I love this game!

It's time for my annual preseason predictions. The Rockets got better this year:

• Courtney Lee will be at least as good as Trevor Ariza was last year, if not better.
• Yao Ming will stay vertical for a full season (though he may miss a game or two here and there) and he will be good to go for the playoffs. His presence alone makes this team 5 games better. It would be more if he wasn't restricted to 24 minutes per game.
• Aaron Brooks is just coming into his prime and is constantly gaining experience.
• Chase Budinger will have a breakout season and show marked improvement.
• Kyle Lowry is only getting better and may be the best guard on the team once he gets healthy.
• Patrick Patterson shows great potential for the future but barring injuries at the forward position, will not see all that much action this season.
• Ish Smith may be faster than even Brooks, yet shows fine court judgement for a rookie point guard. He would play big minutes on any team that did not already have Brooks and Lowry. I hope the Rockets send him to the Valley for some seasoning in the Adelman system.
• Battier says he feels fine, but he is getting a little long in the tooth to maintain the defensive brilliance he once enjoyed. He will be just about as good as he was a year ago.
• Luis Scola is in a similar situation, though a bit younger than Shane. Scola will be as dependable as ever.
• Chuck Hayes is returning to his natural position to backup Scola at power forward. He is an over-achiever that inspires a team. Hayes will have a fine year.

There are several question marks for the 2010-11 season:

• Jermaine Taylor has yet to show the discipline and consistency necessary in an NBA player. I don't see that changing.
• Jarred Jeffries is a journeyman and I have serious doubts that he will ever get beyond that status. He was aquired to make the McGrady trade work and has only one year remaining on his overpriced contract.
• Jordan Hill has potential, which is a kind way of saying "You ain't done squat yet." Adelman seems frustrated with him. Hill would benefit from some time with the Vipers.
• Brad Miller is getting old and was never fast, but he may fit in perfectly with this team and coaching staff. Brad will be important to the team this year. He is a distinct improvement over David Andersen and his experience makes him almost another coach on the court.
• That brings us to the biggest question mark of all and the most important: Kevin Martin. Martin can score in bunches or shoot himself out of the game. He gets the occassional steal, but often disappoints on defense. Whether or not the Rockets go far in the playoffs this season depends a lot on Kevin achieving a level of consistency and developing the Rockets' win-at-all-costs attitude. I predict he will be good, but not great.

Final analysis? The Rockets will win 50 games and make the conference finals, but the Lakers will ultimately beat Miami for the NBA title.

Courtney Lee

The Rockets traded Trevor Ariza for Courtney Lee. There were two other teams and other players involved, but that's what it came down to for the Rockets. Smart move? Yes.

Lee is a role player in the mold of Ariza, but with more upside. Ariza proved last season that he cannot carry a team, but was being paid as a star at over $6 million per season. Lee makes only $1.3 mil and is almost as good as Ariza already. The Rockets also got a $6 million trade exception and Les Alexander has already given Daryl Morey the green light to spend it. Let's face it - championships are won with money, and this gives Morey some flexibility.

As does Ariza, Courtney has his flaws. He does not score well off the dribble and as Martin's backup, he will be called on to do that. Lee shoots 83% from the line, so I'm sure Adelman will be working with him to get him there more often. He is a good set-shooter and can hit the three, especially when the defense collapses on a driving Brooks or sags down on Yao and Scola. Mostly, though, Courtney Lee plays defense. Defense doesn't pay as well, but it wins games.

So the gameplan looks like this. Start Martin and Battier. Offense and defense. Bring in subs Lee and Budinger. Defense and offense. As long as you have both roles on the floor, you can always shut down an opposing scorer.

Ariza is a good player, but he is a luxury. An all-around player that specializes in defense is a boon to an already great team, as he was to the Lakers. But he is not a go-to guy and therefore not worth $6 mil. Good decision, Daryl.

Is This The Team?

Barring a trade, the team looks like this:

Point guard: Kyle Lowry, Aaron Brooks
Shooting guard: Kevin Martin, Jermaine Taylor
Guard/Forward: Trevor Ariza, Shane Battier
Small Forward: Chase Budinger, Mike Harris
Power Forward: Jordan Hill, Alexander Johnson, Patrick Patterson, Jared Jeffries
Forward/Center: Luis Scola, Chuck Hayes, Brad Miller
Center: Yao Ming, David Andersen

That's two players too many. Alexander Johnson is a long shot to make the team at a crowded position, so that leaves one more that has to go. Jermaine Taylor has talent, but doesn't seem to want to play within a system. He scores points, but the team is not better with him in the game. Jared Jeffries is a journeyman with a star's contract. That makes him hard to move and even harder to eat his contract and waive him. Rookie Patrick Patterson has a promising future and there is no way Morey would give up on him before at least two seasons have passed. David Andersen served his purpose last season as a stopgap for Yao, but he will never be an elite center in the NBA. With five players that can play center, David may be the odd man out.

Is the Rockets' core roster set now? Most all the free agents have signed with other teams. Are there any deals out there that could be made? Sure. Everyone is always looking to make a move. With this team, assuming Yao plays significant minutes, the Rockets will make the playoffs. They will even get to at least the second round. But this is not a championship team. Yet.

Welcome Brad!

The Rockets signed Brad Miller to a three year deal to back up Yao Ming at center. Was this a good signing? Absolutely! Miller was one of two centers that I would have been glad to see coming. The other was Zdrunas Ilgauskas. Both are in the last few years of a serviceable career and can still be productive either as starters or back-ups. Shaq would have been fun to watch, but he would cost way too much and does not have the work ethic to fit into this group of over-achievers.

Brad had his best years in Sacramento under Rockets head coach Rick Adelman. In Adelman's high post offense, Miller averaged about 20% higher than his career numbers in every category. Coach and player got along beautifully and remain friends. This was a good choice and bodes well for the next few years. Good job, Rick and Daryl.

Cheat Codes

LeBron, Dwyane and Chris decided that leading a good team to greatness was too tough. So they chose to go online, search for the hacker cheat codes and enable "God mode." Rather than accepting the challenge of winning fair and square, they instead just lowered the bar and made winning easier.

This is exactly what the salary cap was designed to prevent, but there are so many loopholes, exceptions and back-door deals, that if you have enough good lawyers and accountants, a way can be found to stack the deck. Let's hope Mark Cuban can convince the rest of the owners to amend the collective bargaining agreement to make it impossible to buy a championship.

I certainly don't blame Pat Riley or the Heat ownership for trying to get the best team they can, but my opinion of the players involved has gone down a bit this week.

Bosh to Miami

Chris Bosh announced today that he will team up with Dwyane Wade in Miami. Nice try, Daryl. You can't win 'em all.

Now what? Who's left of the free agents that could help the Rockets? LeBron? Ain't happening. The reasons are irrelevant at this point. He would be perfect for Houston, but then again he would be perfect for almost everybody. Nowitzki is staying in Dallas. Johnson is staying in Atlanta. Stoudemire is going to New York. Boozer agreed to terms with Chicago today. Gay is staying in Memphis.

The rest are second tier players, some of which could help the Rockets, but none of which will set the world on fire. Udonis Haslem may want out of Miami now that Bosh is coming, but the Rockets already have Battier at that position. David Lee is a fine, underappreciated player that could make a great backup for Yao, but it's unlikely he will want to go to a team that won't promise to make him a starter. Wouldn't it be fun if Shaq would come here to back up Yao? He's available, and if the Cavs re-sign LeBron, they may not be able to afford Shaq, assuming they still want him.

Hang in there, Daryl. You're going to have to do it with role players again. Pick a couple that will bust their ass for the team and I'll stick by you.

It's On!

Free agency began at 11:00 PM last night and the jockeying for most of the greatest players in the game begins today. Daryl Morey has already visited with Chris Bosh in Dallas to let him know that the Rockets are more than interested in his services (like Bosh did not already know that). I love Bosh as a player, I just hate to see Luis Scola coming off the bench. In a sign and trade deal, the Rockets will have to give up 20-something million dollars in salaries to get Bosh and I fear that much money may come from areas that will leave them very strong at power forward, but weak at other positions. Unless, of course, Scola is a part of that trade. I would hate to see that because $ for $, Scola is a bargain and his salary will not scratch the surface in a trade for Bosh. If it was just a straight swap of Scola for Bosh, well, there would be no discussion. But it would be some combination of Scola, Ariza, Martin, Battier, Jeffries, Lowry, etc. totalling over $20 mil.

Have fun Daryl, but be careful. Don't give away the ranch to sell some season tickets.

The New Guy

Patrick Patterson was selected by the Rockets with the last lottery pick in this year's draft. He is a big, tough power forward from Kentucky that should be able to earn some playing time sooner or later. The Rockets' brass keeps saying how well he fits into the Rockets' "locker room", meaning that his attitude is good and he works and plays well with others. Team chemistry is important of course, but why did they choose another player at what is probably their deepest position? Luis Scola, Jordan Hill and Chuck Hayes are already stacked up there.

The answer would seem to be that they are covering themselves in case Scola bolts in free agency, but Daryl Morey has stated categorically that Luis will be back. Perhaps the team has decided that the Knicks were right about Hill when they traded him halfway through his rookie season. Maybe Rick Adelman wants to use just Yao at center and back him up with Scola and Hayes. That would leave more time for Patterson, but put David Andersen on the bench. Then again, some coaches and GM's say that you just can't have too much talent at the big positions.

All of that assumes that Morey is jockeying to put together a team with the players at hand. The true story may come next Thursday when the free agent marketplace opens its doors. That's the real story of the coming season and may well determine the next champion.

It's time

I've missed this blog, but the way the team ended last season was frankly a little depressing, so I had to take some time off for the playoffs. But now draft time is upon us, so it's time to ramp up the site again. Let's talk BBall!

What should the Rockets do with the 14th pick? It's a pretty deep draft, so what would normally be a mediocre first round pick may end up being someone with enough talent to not just make a roster, but make a difference. But at number 14, that's hardly a given, just a possibility. There may even be a player or two that could fill a need.

So what are the Rockets' needs? Backup center heads the list. Yao may not be back to full strength for some time. There's not even a guarantee that he will be back at all, but indications are that he will be in camp ready to play at least part time. That leaves 25 minutes per game or more for a capable backup. Luis Scola filled the gaps admirably last year, but he is not a true center. David Andersen is a likeable journeyman, but will never be a star. They need another big man.

I'm not a huge fan of Kevin Martin. The team made its mark on the league last season by playing determined, gritty defense, at least up until "the trade." When Kevin came to town, his lack of defensive intensity seemed to make the other players surrender. Maybe that's too harsh, but that's just how it seemed to me. I wouldn't mind seeing Martin traded. The team could use another scoring guard.

The point is adequately manned with Aaron Brooks and Kyle Lowry. Power forward Luis Scola is a strength of the team. The combination of Battier/Ariza creates a defensive small forward that can shut down opponent's scoring forwards. If Yao is healthy, center is obviously under control. Projects Chase Budinger and Jordan Hill are still unknown factors that may prove to be fine investments in the future. So as I see it, the Rockets need to add a big and an SG.

All that said, none of it will happen, probably. This year is one giant wild card awaiting July 1 when almost all of the biggest names in the league will be free agents and can negotiate with other teams. The Rockets hope to be players in that arena. If so, the team will be shaken up in a huge way. It is likely that no one will be untouchable and whoever they draft will be an afterthought. OK, Daryl. Line 'em up and knock 'em down. I'm ready for changes.

I'm still here

I've been a Rockets fan since they came to Houston and I will continue to love and support the team. That's what I mean when I say I'm still here. So why do the guys who are making gazillions of dollars seem like they are mailing in the rest of the season? I haven't seen such mediocre efforts from this team since Steve Francis left. I can deal with the losing. I just can't deal with not giving it 100%. Yes, they are mathmatically out of the playoffs, but unless they are going to lower ticket prioces for the rest of the games, why have they stopped trying? I'm still here and I'm still watching.

Last night in Boston was frustrating. Not for the Rockets, but me personally. I set my DVR to record the game and, as often happens when the games are close, the game took more time to play that was allowed for by Comcast. With less than a minute to play, the recording stopped and I think the TV actually thumbed its nose at me. I missed the OT and a gritty Rockets win. Why can't Comcast monitor the game length and extend the recording as required? It sounds like pretty simple technology to me. They automatically extend the broadcast, why not the recording?

Last Month

In the early part of the year, the Rockets were a model of consistency. They lost some games, but rarely by much and their defense was strong every night. But the last 30 days have revealed flaws in the team's character. Not only have they lost 7 of their last 12 games, but the games have not been close. Wins and losses have been by an average of 13 points. The team's defense has been non-existent, giving up 104 points per game against teams with only a .454 mean winning percentage..

Kevin Martin has always been considered a bit of a defensive liability. He is scoring 23 ppg, but shooting only 41% from the field. The Rockets are not a strong enough offensive rebounding team to overcome that many missed shots. Jared Jeffries has shown some quality moments as has rookie Jordan Hill, but neither will ever be mistaken for Tracy McGrady or even Carl Landry.

The good news is that Trevor Ariza and Kyle Lowry both came back from injuries this week and the improvement in team speed was obvious. It will be interesting to see how the new guys work with the former starting guards.

I'm trying to love this team.

Two Games Later

My heart is heavy. Mediocrity prevails in Toyota Center and there is little hope on the horizon. I have made several posts this season about how much I enjoyed watching the team because of the heart with which they played. I complimented Morey and Adelman for the manner in which they handled the team and Alexander for his leadership. I was positively giddy with anticipation for next season with Yao returning and high hopes for signing a serious impact player to put the Rockets over the top.

Now next season looks like the last ten. The Rockets will put a winning team on the floor, but will not have the hungry world-beater that can forge a championship with his will. Morey, Alexander and Adelman have proven themselves to be impatient and short-sighted. This "new" team is no better than the one with Carl Landry, but now they are stuck with what they have.

I have been a loyal Rockets fan through thick and thin. That won't change. Still, I can help feeling sad for what could have been.

The Trade

McGrady, Landry and Dorsey are gone. In return, the Rockets got Kevin Martin, Jordan Hill, Hilton Armstrong and Jared Jeffries. Reporting the facts is easy. Figuring out why this trade went down is not.

On the surface, it makes sense to get something for McGrady before he becomes a free agent at the end of the season and walks away. But McGrady was a key to this trade in salary cap considerations only. The real trade was Carl Landry for Kevin Martin. Everything else is just making the dollars work. Unfortunately, in making the dollars work, the Rockets have given up their ability to sign a significant free agent after this season. They have locked themselves into almost $19 million in new salaries that extend into next season or beyond. Barring off-season trades, that effectively eliminates them from the James/Wade/Bosh/Stoudemire sweepstakes. In fact, most of the biggest names in the league will either be untrestricted free agents or have early termination options this off-season.

What did the Rockets get in return for losing their flexibility? A one-dimensional guard, a third-tier backup center, an overpriced journeyman forward and a young big with potential. It's hard to find much to love in this trade. So why did it happen? Do the Rockets know something about the available big name free agents? Are they all likely to sign with teams other than the Rockets? Was Landry already at the top of his game with no upside? Does Hill have more potential that the Knicks envisioned? Did Dorsey have more holes in his game than Adelman admitted?

Given his history of smart personnel moves, I can only believe that Daryl Morey knows things that we do not. This is the first move he has made that does not sit well with me at all. Rockets fans were completely understanding of the fact that the team was without its two best players, but still winning with grit and determination. We were perfectly willing to be loyal to the team and wait for the off-season to sign an impact player that would take them to a championship. But now, that hope is lost. The four players the Rockets got will not take them anywhere.

Starter problems

I don't have statistics to back this up, but it seems like every game, the Rockets either jump out to a double digit lead by the middle of the first quarter or fall behind to an equal degree. Why are the Rockets inconsistent at the start of games? I would love to be privy to the mountain of data generated by Daryl Morey's computer. It might tell us which players come out strong and which lack early motivation.

What is obvious from a little research is that the Rockets are a team with little difference in quality between the starters and their backups. In fact, one could argue that Coach Adelman saves his better players for the second and fourth quarters. The top four Rockets on the very revealing +/- stat sheet (on a per-minute basis) are substitutes: David Anderson, Chase Budinger, Kyle Lowry and Carl Landry, in that order. In other words, the Rockets outscore their opponents while these guys are on the floor. All of the rest of the team are just the opposite, with negative +/- numbers. Some would say that the obvious reason for these upside-down stats is that our subs are on the floor against their subs, not their first-line players. There may be some truth to that, but Adelman often stays with his subs to finish games. His lineups are consistent, but the minutes and times they play are not.

Should we praise the team's depth or look for weaknesses in the starters? Both, actually. Let's play "What's wrong?" with the starting lineup.

Last year I campaigned for Kyle Lowry to be elevated to starter. I wouldn't argue if that happened right now, but to be fair, Aaron Brooks has come a long way and has earned the right to start. Even though both these young colts tend to be a bit inconsistent, the Rockets have one of the best point guard combos in the league. PG is not a problem.

Luis Scola is a very lovable player. He gives his all every night and is consistent, both offensively and defensively. So why does he only play 30 minutes per game? Does he have stamina problems or is Adelman just making room for Landry?

Chuck Hayes is a fine defensive player, despite his lack of height for the center position. But let's face it, Chuck is an offensive liability and Scola cannot carry the entire inside scoring load by himself. That means that the team must rely on outside shooting when the running game is not spot on. Outside shooting, on any team, is going to be inconsistent.

I would never say that Shane Battier is a problem. He is the most intelligent, durable and consistent player on the team, especially on defense. Offensively, his role is as the designated third option, stationed at the 3-point line. That takes him out of position to be a great rebounder and assist man, not that he was ever either one.

The Rockets brought in Trevor Ariza to be the go-to man on offense and a big guard stopper on defense. He has played well defensively, but offense is another story. His 38% shooting (31% from the 3-point line) is not good enough for a starting scoring guard. Compounding that deficiency, his decision-making is below par, as evidenced by his 2.5 turnovers per game and poor shooting percentage, despite many of his shots coming from the paint. He too often drives into an over-crowded lane, only to throw up an off-balance prayer.

There it is. The diagnosis is that a lack of inside scoring is exacerbated by poor outside shooting. That's why the subs have excelled. Carl Landry and David Anderson provide better inside punch and Chase Budinger is a better outside shooter than Ariza. There is no drop off in play when Lowry comes in, so the ball keeps moving well. What's the solution to the problem? Simple. Yao Ming.

New Year's Status Report

In my post of 11/30, I detailed the rocky road the Rockets faced in December. It was a busy month, with most of it on the road. They faced several really good teams and had to deal with five back-to-backs. I said that if they just held their own and beat the teams they were supposed to beat, they would go 8-8.

Wow. They won 11 games, dealt with the Tracy McGrady saga and beat Dallas twice. This team is doing everything right - playing hard, team-oriented basketball and focusing on all the right things. The only negative is that they lost to Portland, Denver, Cleveland and Orlando. Those are all teams that they could see in the playoffs, but in their defense, three of those losses were the second games of back-to-backs on the road.

Les Alexander announced yesterday that the team would pick up its option for the fourth year of Rick Adelman's contract. Yet another smart move, Les. Adelman has earned every penny you've paid him and has made me - and thousands of other prognosticators - look foolish for pre-season predictions that the Rockets would miss the playoffs this year. The way they are going (and improving all the time), they could even achieve home court advantage for the first round.

Happy New Year everyone!