Starter problems

I don't have statistics to back this up, but it seems like every game, the Rockets either jump out to a double digit lead by the middle of the first quarter or fall behind to an equal degree. Why are the Rockets inconsistent at the start of games? I would love to be privy to the mountain of data generated by Daryl Morey's computer. It might tell us which players come out strong and which lack early motivation.

What is obvious from a little research is that the Rockets are a team with little difference in quality between the starters and their backups. In fact, one could argue that Coach Adelman saves his better players for the second and fourth quarters. The top four Rockets on the very revealing +/- stat sheet (on a per-minute basis) are substitutes: David Anderson, Chase Budinger, Kyle Lowry and Carl Landry, in that order. In other words, the Rockets outscore their opponents while these guys are on the floor. All of the rest of the team are just the opposite, with negative +/- numbers. Some would say that the obvious reason for these upside-down stats is that our subs are on the floor against their subs, not their first-line players. There may be some truth to that, but Adelman often stays with his subs to finish games. His lineups are consistent, but the minutes and times they play are not.

Should we praise the team's depth or look for weaknesses in the starters? Both, actually. Let's play "What's wrong?" with the starting lineup.

Last year I campaigned for Kyle Lowry to be elevated to starter. I wouldn't argue if that happened right now, but to be fair, Aaron Brooks has come a long way and has earned the right to start. Even though both these young colts tend to be a bit inconsistent, the Rockets have one of the best point guard combos in the league. PG is not a problem.

Luis Scola is a very lovable player. He gives his all every night and is consistent, both offensively and defensively. So why does he only play 30 minutes per game? Does he have stamina problems or is Adelman just making room for Landry?

Chuck Hayes is a fine defensive player, despite his lack of height for the center position. But let's face it, Chuck is an offensive liability and Scola cannot carry the entire inside scoring load by himself. That means that the team must rely on outside shooting when the running game is not spot on. Outside shooting, on any team, is going to be inconsistent.

I would never say that Shane Battier is a problem. He is the most intelligent, durable and consistent player on the team, especially on defense. Offensively, his role is as the designated third option, stationed at the 3-point line. That takes him out of position to be a great rebounder and assist man, not that he was ever either one.

The Rockets brought in Trevor Ariza to be the go-to man on offense and a big guard stopper on defense. He has played well defensively, but offense is another story. His 38% shooting (31% from the 3-point line) is not good enough for a starting scoring guard. Compounding that deficiency, his decision-making is below par, as evidenced by his 2.5 turnovers per game and poor shooting percentage, despite many of his shots coming from the paint. He too often drives into an over-crowded lane, only to throw up an off-balance prayer.

There it is. The diagnosis is that a lack of inside scoring is exacerbated by poor outside shooting. That's why the subs have excelled. Carl Landry and David Anderson provide better inside punch and Chase Budinger is a better outside shooter than Ariza. There is no drop off in play when Lowry comes in, so the ball keeps moving well. What's the solution to the problem? Simple. Yao Ming.

New Year's Status Report

In my post of 11/30, I detailed the rocky road the Rockets faced in December. It was a busy month, with most of it on the road. They faced several really good teams and had to deal with five back-to-backs. I said that if they just held their own and beat the teams they were supposed to beat, they would go 8-8.

Wow. They won 11 games, dealt with the Tracy McGrady saga and beat Dallas twice. This team is doing everything right - playing hard, team-oriented basketball and focusing on all the right things. The only negative is that they lost to Portland, Denver, Cleveland and Orlando. Those are all teams that they could see in the playoffs, but in their defense, three of those losses were the second games of back-to-backs on the road.

Les Alexander announced yesterday that the team would pick up its option for the fourth year of Rick Adelman's contract. Yet another smart move, Les. Adelman has earned every penny you've paid him and has made me - and thousands of other prognosticators - look foolish for pre-season predictions that the Rockets would miss the playoffs this year. The way they are going (and improving all the time), they could even achieve home court advantage for the first round.

Happy New Year everyone!