Critical Game 6

Houston has been in a second round drought for way too long, but there are life-giving rain clouds on the horizon. The Rockets' best chance to break the chains of mediocrity is at hand tonight in Toyota Center. That's not to say that they will automatically lose if they are forced to go back to Portland for a seventh game, but I'd have to say the odds would not be in their favor.

Predictions:

• The Rockets will win the game and advance to the next round.
• Yao Ming will score less than 20 points, but he will be efficient on both ends of the court and contribute significantly to the win.
• Ron Artest will not try to take over the game more than a couple of times.
• Aaron Brooks will not have many assists, but will not make many stupid plays either.
• Kyle Lowry will run the team well, but will not score many points.
• Shane Battier will hold Brandon Roy to 24 points or less on less than 45% shooting.
• Luis Scola will outscore Lamarcus Aldridge.

This blog has a problem.

It lacks hostility. I have two big problems as a blogger. (1) I love the Rockets and don't enjoy disrespecting them and (2) I recognize that there are other great players and teams in the NBA.

(1) When a player has a bad game, I say so and try to analyze what they did wrong and how to correct it. I don't find it necessary to insult a player on a personal level or spew invectives about him. So many blogs feel they have to hate someone to be entertaining. The only thing I hate in sports is a lack of effort. If an athlete is giving everything he has and still comes up short, I'll say he came up short and maybe even that he doesn't have what it takes to be in the league, but I won't abuse him personally. After all, we can't all be Michael Jordan. In fact, I quote Michael Jordan: "I've missed more than 9,000 shots in my career. I've lost almost 300 games. 26 times, I've been trusted to take the game winning shot and missed. I've failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed."

(2) Not every Rockets loss is their own fault. It is an easy trap to fall into to say that so-and-so blew the game last night, but the fact is that sometimes the other team just plays really well. Sometimes the opposing coaching staff does their homework and puts together a really good game plan. A true fan appreciates quality play even when it comes from the other team. I do and when I see it, I say so. Sometimes when the Rockets lose, instead of tongue-lashing the home team, I compliment the victors. That seems to be an unpopular stance these days.

I've been around long enough to remember a time when civility was expected in everyday life. You didn't insult someone for fear that you might get punched in the nose - at least. But more importantly, it was a societal norm. Nowadays, Judge Judy calls people names from the bench and every sitcom is based on antagonism. Truthfully, though, I don't remember if it has always been thus in sports. I always loved my sports heroes and they could do no wrong, but I don't know if it was common to blast the 1927 Yankees when they lost the occassional game. In NYC, probably.

The general consensus is that we pay our athletes ridiculous amounts of money, so they should suffer the slings and arrows that come with their outrageous fortunes. We see them as the legitimate recipients of the enmity and helplessness we feel when the boss chews us out or the cop gives us a speeding ticket. But athletes are basically just entertainers, no more or less than a singer or dancer. If we are honest with ourselves, sometimes a great dancer will trip on the scenery and a singer will miss a note. Nobody is perfect and as long as they are trying, I'll admire the excellent performance - regardless of which team provided it - and cut the losers some slack.

By the way, I predict the Rockets will lose tonight's game in Portland. The Blazers are young and hungry.

Tonight's Game

Let's pretend that anybody gives a rat's ass whether or not I can correctly predict the result of tonight's game. For the record: the Rockets will win game four. I won't bother to explain my reasoning because my predictions are sometimes little more than gut hunches. That's the case here. I just think they'll win.

Half Right

The Rockets won, but hardly convincingly. They did it with defense, holding the Trailblazers to only 83 points. Shane Battier was a defensive animal in the fourth quarter and Ron Artest played smart strong basketball the whole game. Luis Scola picked up the slack on offense and the Rockets' point guards mostly played well on both ends of the court.

Yao Ming was wholly ineffective on offense in game 3, scoring only seven points on 2-7 shooting. He was just unable to get open in the paint. The tag team of Przybilla and Oden fronted him all night and again, the Rockets were unable to swing the ball to the weak side fast enough to allow Yao to move across the lane for the pass. Even if Houston wins this series, every potential opponent is taking notes. If the Rockets can't find a way to get the ball in to Yao consistently, they will not go far in the playoffs.

A win is a win, and like the Rockets, I am 2-1. Ok, they had to work a little harder for their record than I did, but still... Way to go, guys.

Game 3 prediction

I'm a little late getting posted tonight, but here it is: The Rockets will win game 3 convincingly.

Stealing Home (Court)

I hate that I was right about the second game, though the game was a little higher scoring than I thought it would be. Actually, I was only right in concept. I thought that the Rockets would get a split in Portland, but I believed the Blazers would come out strong in game one and the Rockets would take game two. So when the Rockets blew out the Blazers in game one, I had to stick with my original prediction of a split and predict a loss in game two. Like the Rockets, I'm 1-1.

Still, Houston has to be happy to welcome home the Rockets, having regained the home court advantage they lost in Dallas last week. The happiness must be tempered with concern for the ease with which the Trailblazers adapted to Yao's excellent post play in game one. In game two, they fronted Yao with Greg Oden, among others, and limited him to only 6 shots. But the Rocket's biggest problem was not offense. They still shot 50% from the field. The problem was that the Blazers found their offense and shot even better. No one was able to stop Lamarcus Aldrige and Brandon Roy. Even Luis Scola was uncharacteristically ineffective. But it was only one game. The Rockets still come home with the odds on their side.

Game Two

Tonight's game will be close, with the Rockets losing. Both teams scores will be in the 90's. Houston caught the Blazers napping in game 1, but it won't happen again. Then again, I'm 0-1. I hope I go 0-2.

Side note: Semi congratulations to Rick Adelman for getting second place in the coach of the year balloting. It's hard to disagree with the winner, though. Even having one of the best - if not THE best - players in the game, Mike Brown led an otherwise spotty cast to the best record in the NBA. Still, any coach that can make Ron Artest stay out of trouble and be productive for a full season deserves serious consideration, especially one that can lose a $20 mil man and still be a serious contender.

Next: I vote for Daryl Morey for GM of the year.

Wow.

Could I have been more wrong? I don't think so! That was as beautiful a blow-out as I've ever seen. The Rockets took the Trailblazers to school in every area of the game, leading in all statistical categories. It was such a rout that it is almost impossible to point out a single area in which Houston excelled. They were excellent in every aspect.

Kudos to the entire team and coaching staff!

One Game at a Time.

Let's see how I do. As to the overall series, I believe the Rockets have made significant strides since my post in February in which I predicted a first round exit. I hope I was wrong at the time. I think they will win the first series.

Now for the first game in Portland tonight. The Rockets will not win the first game. It's a late night west coast game - not a good situation against a young hungry team. Again, I hope I am wrong.

Bad Omen or Just a Bad Evening?

Multiple bad things had to happen last night for the Rockets to lose home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Guess what? Everybody that had to win, won - and the Rockets lost. And they didn't lose in a good way. They lost in the same way they've been losing all season. Artest tried to do too much, Brooks had numerous brain-farts and the entire team forgot how to get the ball to Yao - or in lieu thereof, how to score from elsewhere when Yao was double-teamed. In short, they fell apart offensively in the fourth quarter and played poor defense almost the entire night. Moreover, nobody seemed able to corral Dirk Nowitzki. Usually solid Luis Scola couldn't lay a glove on him and Carl Landry didn't fare much better, either on defense or on the boards. Kyle Lowry was something of a bright spot, leading the team well through three quarters, though he too lost his composure late in the game. I renew my petition to start Lowry. He has been playing better than Brooks and the Rockets could use Aaron's offense of the bench.

As the real show opens Saturday night, the big question is was Wednesday just a night of bad bio-rhythms and horoscopes or was it indicative of what we can expect in the playoffs? In theory, the Rockets drew a good first-round matchup in the Portland Trailblazers. Though they suffered a demoralizing last-second defeat to the Blazers in Portland in November, it must be noted that Shane Battier had not yet come back from off-season surgery and Ron Artest was still getting his feet wet in the Rockets lineup. Since then, the Blazers have lost twice in Houston.

Conclusion? The Dallas game was a fluke. In recent months after tough losses, the Rockets have shown a penchant for picking themselves up, dusting themselves off and delivering an ass-kicking to whoever was unlucky enough to be next on the schedule. It's Portland's turn to be the whipping boy.

Paul Checked

Defense was key to the Rockets systematic dismantling of the New Orleans Hornets Monday night, 86-66. The Hornets' much ballyhooed point guard, Chris Paul, was checkmated by a swarming team defense, begining with the Rockets point guard tandem of Aaron Brooks and Kyle Lowry and continued with Shane Battier, Ron Artest and Von Wafer picking him up off the pick and roll. Paul was simply not allowed to be the deciding factor in the game and none of the other Hornets was capable of picking up the slack. Credit Adelman's game plan for this one.

Though Artest and Brooks both suffered an abyssmal shooting night, they made sure their opponents did too, allowing the fewest points scored by an opponent all season. Though Brooks was the starter, the Rockets did not take the lead until Lowry came in and in fact, Lowry played more minutes than Brooks. It was Kyle's best defensive game so far, again lending credence to the Rockets' chances in the playoffs. The playoffs are much more defense-oriented and this game is a good indicator that Lowry and his teammates are learning to work and play well together.

So now it's off to Dallas for the final game of the season. Can anyone believe that on the last day, that it is still possible for the Rockets to match up against any of seven teams in the playoffs? That's the Western Conference for you - rough, tough and competitive as hell. The good news is that if the Rockets win on Wednesday, they will finish as division champs and have at least one round of home court advantage. Nike, baby. Just do it!

Rockets on a Roll

First of all, everything positive that I am about to say is contingent on whether the Rockets organization and Yao Ming himself are telling the truth about his foot injury. Both say that it is very minor and just needs a couple of days' rest. If that is true (or if they just put that story out so they could keep him out of Friday's game to rest him), then things are looking pretty good for the home team.

A week ago, both Phoenix and the Lakers put successive beatings on our boys and the Rockets limped home, appearing demoralized. But looks were deceiving, and that is why I am slightly optimistic for the playoffs. They picked themselves up and showed some stubborn resiliency by winning an important conference game against Portland, then soundly defeated an outstanding Orlando Magic team. They followed those with road wins against the (Sad) Sacramento Kings and the crippled Golden Sate Warriors, though they didn't really dominate either team. There was no good reason that the Rockets should not have won either game, but Houston has always had trouble adjusting to west coast time and were playing back-to-back games. Had the Rockets not needed those games for a favorable playoff seeding, they could have easily mailed it in - but they didn't. They took care of business and it showed a toughness and determination that has sometimes been missing this year. It bodes well for getting past the first round for a change.

That's the greatest thing about sports. You can realize that the chances are slim for the your favorite team to win it all, but you can still have hope. After all, someone in Sacramento thought that trading away Ron Artest for Donte Greene, Houston's first draft pick, and Bobby Jackson would put them over the top. A full season and sixteen wins later...

Magic Moment

Houston completed a sweep of the Magic tonight with a convincing 93-83 victory at Toyota Center. Speaking of centers, remind me again why Dwight Howard is considered a much better center than Yao Ming. Yao controlled the post the entire game, scoring 20 points and pulling down 16 rebounds compared to 13 and 10 by Howard. I don't deny that Howard is a force, but Yao rules him every time they play.

Artest deserves kudos for dishing out 7 assists, and scoring 16 points, though it took him 21 shots to do it. The backup crew of Wafer, Lowry and (hooray) Carl Landry all had good games, energizing the team and picking up the tempo. The entire team played strong defense, holding the Magic to only 83 points, compared to their season average of 102.

This victory sorta confirms my east vs. west disparity post, doesn't it? The Rockets have now beaten Cleveland, Boston and Orlando (twice). If a miracle should happen and they make it to the championship game, they stand a good chance of bringing it home. But lest I get ahead of myself, the Rockets merely held their own in the tough Western Conference tonight because all the playoff contenders in the west won as well, though none played a team as good as the Magic. Hang in there boys.

Rockets Outclass Blazers

The Portland Trailblazers kept the Rockets' lead to single digits most of the night, but the home team seemed to be in the driver's seat the whole way. Luis Scola was a force, as was Yao Ming, who dominated the Blazers' centers. But it was Von Wafer that really lit up the scoreboard down the stretch, throwing down a reverse dunk from under the basket that brought the Toyota Center crowd to its feet.

This was not a must-win game because there is still time to jockey for position in the Western Conference playoff standings, but Portland was the team directly in front of them for home court advantage in the first round. They may still play the Blazers in the first round, but they will now have the tie-breaker for home court.

Rick Adelman is preparing for the playoffs by playing only 8 players and concentrating on the core group that he will be taking to the big dance. I suspect that Carl Landry will also be in that lineup when he returns. With luck, that will be later this week, in time for big games against division opponents New Orleans and Dallas next week. But before they can focus on those games, they have to take on powerhouse Orlando Magic in Toyota Center on Tuesday and withstand a back to back whirlwind California tour against Golden State and Sacramento on Thursday and Friday. There is no rest in the NBA. The last five games could be a bitch.

Beat (up by) LA!

The Rockets succumbed to the Lakers yet again last night, allowing a clean sweep for the season by the hated west-coast team. Worse yet, they fell to fifth seed in the playoff standings, behind Portland. I say worse yet because Houston has historically not fared well in the Pacific time zone. I think there is something about playing late games out there that just screws up Texans' equilibrium.

Once again, during crucial stretches in the fourth quarter, Aaron Brooks lost all memory of how the offense was to work and Ron Artest tried to challenge the Lakers to a one-on-five game. Maybe I should just cut-and-paste that comment from the last 20 times I've written it. It's getting old and it is a prime reason why the Rockets are not favored to get very far in the playoffs. Perhaps it's time to just mail it in and wait for McGrady to get back next year. The Rockets desperately need a go-to guy down the stretch.

If the season ended today, the Blazers would be Houston's first-round opponents. That is a distinct possiblilty eventually anyway. Of Houston's six remaining games, 3 are on the road and 4 are against playoff teams. Portland, on the other hand, has 4 of their last seven on the road, but only 3 are against playoff teams. The status quo may be the way it ends up. On paper, Houston matches up pretty well against the Blazers, but the game isn't played on paper and the young Trailblazers are hungry and would have home court advantage. Still, of all the first round match-up possibilities, I like the Rockets' chances in Portland best.

Crater in the Desert

The Rockets played an inspired third quarter to overcome an eleven point halftime lead by the Phoenix Suns tonight, but suffered a 15-0 Suns run in the fourth to give it all back - and then some. When you go six minutes without scoring in the fourth quarter against Phoenix, you're going to lose. The Suns hardly go six seconds without scoring.

Luis Scola appeared out of sync in Phoenix and Kyle Lowry couldn't seem to put his game together. As is often the case, Ron Artest was the game's high scorer, but had a negative plus minus stat. When Ron decides to take over, he usually hurts the team.

Alvin Gentry has the Suns playing hot and cold since he ascended to the head coaching position, displacing Terry Porter. Gentry has a 13-11 record, with both a six game win streak and a six game losing streak to his credit. Tonight was more of the same with Phoenix at times streaking to the lead and then slumping back to mediocrity. But in the end, Steve Nash (25 points, 17 assists) took over and sealed the victory.

Not only did all five Suns score in double figures, they also bested the Rockets in FG%, rebounds, assists and blocked shots and had fewer turnovers and fouls. That's pretty much a clean sweep. After a week of practices, this one was not a good omen for the home team. Fourth quarter craters have been their story this year. Let's hope they can get it resolved by playoff time.