Prediction Time

It's that time of year again, the time where everyone decides who will prosper and who will falter in the NBA. Hell, I'm not even sure why they play the games. We scribes have it all figured out by now. I guess the owners feel like they have to go ahead and have a season just to make a little money. Here's my take on the final standings:

Eastern Conference Playoffs:

1. Cleveland
2. Boston
3. Orlando
4. Chicago
5. Phildelphia
6. New York
7. Atlanta
8. Detroit

Western Conference Playoffs:

1. Los Angeles
2. San Antonio
3. Denver
4. Dallas
5. Portland
6. Golden State
7. Phoenix
8. New Orleans

Eastern Conference Champion: Cleveland Cavaliers

Western Conference Champion: Los Angeles Lakers

NBA Champion: Cleveland Cavaliers

Readers may notice that the Rockets are not included in the playoffs. I will offer one proviso on that prognostication. If Tracy McGrady comes back at even 75% of his former self, they will unseat one of the bottom three teams on my list. If that happens, they will lose in the first or second round, depending on the matchup.

One other prediction for the home team. They will have a losing record (barring outstanding play by McGrady), but will score more total points over the course of the entire season than the total points of all their opponents. I say that because I believe that this is a very scrappy team that never gives up and will not suffer many blowout losses. Close games in all their losses and a few big wins will make this prediction come true. The nature of this team is also the reason I am looking forward to the season. I appreciate guts and teamwork, both of which should be abundant on the Houston Rockets.

Pre-season Progress Report

Houston has a problem. Make that several problems: inexperience, inconsistency and a general lack of star quality. Let's address these one at a time.

In the last couple of years, Houston has gone from one of the most veteran teams in the league to one of the youngest. This was out of necessity in many ways. When Yao went out for the season and Tracy's career became iffy, the team was faced with a decision. They could acquire a decent player or two through trade or free agency or rebuild with younger players with potential and hope to get lucky with a couple of them. Then when Tracy's contract expires and Yao returns healthy next season, sign a superstar to complete the picture. If Tracy comes back healthy, he could be that superstar. I agreed with the choice they made, especially since the only good players available in free agency were overpriced and any trade possibilites were for mediocre players with long-term contracts.

The inconsistency is to be expected with all the personnel changes. Adelman is not only trying to integrate important pieces into the puzzle, he's not sure yet which pieces to use. There are seven "bigs" on the roster and except for Landry and Scola, none have stood out. Without a true center, all of the big men will have to be flexible enough to play either position, at least at times. There are also six "wings" to man the small forward/shooting guard position and again, only Battier and Ariza are sure bets to make the squad. Then there's the question of how many point guards to carry. Brooks and Lowry are sure things, but since none of the wings are profficient at the point, do they keep Conroy for insurance? In six pre-season games, Brooks has started five, but no other player has started more than three. Eleven players are averaging between 7.4 and 12.3 ppg, with no one over that. With all the experimentation Rick Adelman has had to do to find his team, inconsistency in the natural result.

Analyzing the talent pool is not that hard. Only four of the Rockets were drafted in the first round and three of those were taken with the 24th pick or higher. Only Shane Battier was considered a blue-chip player at #6, and he is getting a little banged up and long in the tooth. All of the Rockets have talent, but few are well-rounded. A starting lineup of Andersen, Scola, Battier, Ariza and Brooks is not very intimidating on paper and their backups all have holes in their games. The draft is hardly infallible, but it is a good indication of overall ability and the Rockets come up way short.

With all the problems listed above, the Rockets do have a couple of advantages. Their front office and coaching staff are among the best in the league. If anyone can pull this team together, it is Rick Adelman. He has made a career of making mediocre teams good. Can he make them great? Sorry. Not this year. But let's hope he can at least make them fun to watch.

Forget McCants - For Now

"Never mind." -Emily Litella

The Rockets abandoned plans to sign Rashad McCants due to an "abdominal injury." I'm not sure what that means, but it sounds like they're sick of him already. According to his agent, McCants suffered the injury while working out in Miami a few days before camp opened. Daryl Morey did not eliminate the possibility that he may be signed in the future when his condition improves.

In order to get enough healthy bodies in camp to have full speed practices, the Rockets signed Romel Beck, a wingman from UNLV who last played for the Mexican national team. Unfortunately, Beck drew criticism similar to McCants during his Mexico stint regarding his unwillingness to play a team game and was ultimately removed from the team during the FIBA Americas championship. He played for the Spurs in this year's Summer League, but was not offered an invitation to training camp. I refer you to the last paragraph of my McCants post. Just change the name to Beck.

And We're Off!

I love this day. Media Day is the day before training camp starts. Everybody looks great, everybody has an excellent chance to make the team and everybody loves everybody else. The Rockets have a great nucleus, outstanding young prospects and they're going to win many games by running more this year.

I'll come down and be realistic later. Let me enjoy this euphoria. I love basketball.

One interesting note, the Rockets will be the first team in NBA history to spend some of their training camp with their minor league affiliate, the Rio Grande Valley Vipers. Sandwiched around their first pre-season game in San Antonio on October 6th, they'll practice in McAllen on the 4th and 5th and play a game there against the Celtics in Dodge Arena on Wednesday, the 7th. I wish I could make the trip, that would be fun!

Rockets Sign 1st Round Draft Choice

OK, it wasn't their first-round draft choice or even this year's draft. Rashad McCants, the 14th overall pick in the 2005 NBA draft, signed a non-guaranteed contract with the Rockets on Thursday.

McCants was drafted by Minnesota after helping the North Carolina Tarheels to a national championship in his junior year. He suffered injuries in his first couple of seasons with the Timberwolves and following microfracture surgery, never played up to expectations. His stats have been consistently mediocre throughout his years in the league. He had a reputation coming out of college as a head case and his NBA career has yet to belie that impression. In the middle of his fourth season with Minnesota, he wore out his welcome and was traded to Sacramento. The Kings could have resigned him for a song this off-season, but elected not to even submit an offer. It might be interesting to note when the Kings show up on the Rockets schedule to see if Rashad has any hard feelings. I recommend an interesting interview with McCants by Robbi Pickeral at newsobserver.com: http://blogs.newsobserver.com/accnow/mccants-wants-to-change-perception

I'm all for giving guys second chances, but is this what the Rockets really need? I guess if they're going to sign him, now is the time to do it, while they have a full training camp to look at him and they didn't have to guarantee any money. OK, Rashad, here's your chance. Don't screw it up.

Congratulations Daryl!

Here's to the best general manager in the history of Houston sports. I have followed the Astros, Oilers, Texans and Rockets since each team came into existence and have yet to see anyone who made as many right moves as Daryl Morey. He is respected on the team and around the league.

I applaud Les Alexander's decision to extend Morey's contract, as officially announced today. As always, terms of the contract were not made public, but I hope you got a big raise, Daryl. You've earned it!

White to Denver

Apparently trying to pare down their guard roster, the Rockets today traded high-scoring G/F James White to Denver for the rights to Axel Hervelle, a 6-9 power forward from Belgium. White did great things in the D-League with Anaheim, but the Rockets had him low in the pecking order at the big league level. Only the Rockets' brass knows why he was traded and no NBA front office people reveal things like that. Perhaps that's out of kindness to the player or perhaps they just don't want to give away a free scouting report.

Axel Hervelle was drafted in the second round by Denver in the 2005 draft and has been playing in Spain ever since. Hervelle averaged 8.3 points and 5 rebounds per game last year for Real Madrid and is likely to stay there next year as well. He is a teammate of Sergio Llull, one of Houston's three 2nd round draft choices this year.

Thank goodness the Rockets landed another power forward. They were down to their last five. This is another trade that I don't completely understand. I have to assume that the team knew that White had no chance whatsoever to make the Rockets basketball roster this season and decided to get something for him in return, something that cost them nothing. Or maybe they were just being nice guys and wanted to give James a chance to succeed somewhere else.

Leslie Wine

Yao Ming is here to stay, at least as long as he has any hope whatsoever of returning to the court for the Rockets. There's just too much money in China for Les Alexander to ignore.

Here's a small example of what I mean. Les bought property in North Fork, Long Island in 2001 and has been cultivating grapes and making wine there ever since. He brought in some high-powered wine advisers to get just the right French vines for the climate and to plant and nuture them correctly. To exemplify his love of the wine, in his divorce settlement from his wife Nanci, they split 600 bottles of the wine and he got his half in 100 bottle increments only when he made his annual divorce settlement payments. I said all that to say this: he is selling Leslie Wine exclusively in China.

Leslie Alexander is one of the 400 wealthiest people on the planet, with a net worth of $1.2 billion. He knows where money is and how to get it - and Yao Ming is the door to the mine. If not, maybe Les would be giving away a case of wine with every Rockets season ticket sold.