Starter problems

I don't have statistics to back this up, but it seems like every game, the Rockets either jump out to a double digit lead by the middle of the first quarter or fall behind to an equal degree. Why are the Rockets inconsistent at the start of games? I would love to be privy to the mountain of data generated by Daryl Morey's computer. It might tell us which players come out strong and which lack early motivation.

What is obvious from a little research is that the Rockets are a team with little difference in quality between the starters and their backups. In fact, one could argue that Coach Adelman saves his better players for the second and fourth quarters. The top four Rockets on the very revealing +/- stat sheet (on a per-minute basis) are substitutes: David Anderson, Chase Budinger, Kyle Lowry and Carl Landry, in that order. In other words, the Rockets outscore their opponents while these guys are on the floor. All of the rest of the team are just the opposite, with negative +/- numbers. Some would say that the obvious reason for these upside-down stats is that our subs are on the floor against their subs, not their first-line players. There may be some truth to that, but Adelman often stays with his subs to finish games. His lineups are consistent, but the minutes and times they play are not.

Should we praise the team's depth or look for weaknesses in the starters? Both, actually. Let's play "What's wrong?" with the starting lineup.

Last year I campaigned for Kyle Lowry to be elevated to starter. I wouldn't argue if that happened right now, but to be fair, Aaron Brooks has come a long way and has earned the right to start. Even though both these young colts tend to be a bit inconsistent, the Rockets have one of the best point guard combos in the league. PG is not a problem.

Luis Scola is a very lovable player. He gives his all every night and is consistent, both offensively and defensively. So why does he only play 30 minutes per game? Does he have stamina problems or is Adelman just making room for Landry?

Chuck Hayes is a fine defensive player, despite his lack of height for the center position. But let's face it, Chuck is an offensive liability and Scola cannot carry the entire inside scoring load by himself. That means that the team must rely on outside shooting when the running game is not spot on. Outside shooting, on any team, is going to be inconsistent.

I would never say that Shane Battier is a problem. He is the most intelligent, durable and consistent player on the team, especially on defense. Offensively, his role is as the designated third option, stationed at the 3-point line. That takes him out of position to be a great rebounder and assist man, not that he was ever either one.

The Rockets brought in Trevor Ariza to be the go-to man on offense and a big guard stopper on defense. He has played well defensively, but offense is another story. His 38% shooting (31% from the 3-point line) is not good enough for a starting scoring guard. Compounding that deficiency, his decision-making is below par, as evidenced by his 2.5 turnovers per game and poor shooting percentage, despite many of his shots coming from the paint. He too often drives into an over-crowded lane, only to throw up an off-balance prayer.

There it is. The diagnosis is that a lack of inside scoring is exacerbated by poor outside shooting. That's why the subs have excelled. Carl Landry and David Anderson provide better inside punch and Chase Budinger is a better outside shooter than Ariza. There is no drop off in play when Lowry comes in, so the ball keeps moving well. What's the solution to the problem? Simple. Yao Ming.

New Year's Status Report

In my post of 11/30, I detailed the rocky road the Rockets faced in December. It was a busy month, with most of it on the road. They faced several really good teams and had to deal with five back-to-backs. I said that if they just held their own and beat the teams they were supposed to beat, they would go 8-8.

Wow. They won 11 games, dealt with the Tracy McGrady saga and beat Dallas twice. This team is doing everything right - playing hard, team-oriented basketball and focusing on all the right things. The only negative is that they lost to Portland, Denver, Cleveland and Orlando. Those are all teams that they could see in the playoffs, but in their defense, three of those losses were the second games of back-to-backs on the road.

Les Alexander announced yesterday that the team would pick up its option for the fourth year of Rick Adelman's contract. Yet another smart move, Les. Adelman has earned every penny you've paid him and has made me - and thousands of other prognosticators - look foolish for pre-season predictions that the Rockets would miss the playoffs this year. The way they are going (and improving all the time), they could even achieve home court advantage for the first round.

Happy New Year everyone!

T-Mac Era is Over

Tracy McGrady has been given permission to leave the team while the Rockets attempt to trade him. That effectively ends his tenure in Houston; one of unfulfilled potential. In his 5+ seasons here, the Rockets did not win a single playoff series while he was on the court. That speaks volumes.

For his entire career, McGrady has been told that he was a superstar. It is understandable that he would begin to believe it and let it go to his head. Unfortunately, while Tracy has the talent and the skills to be a great player, he has never had the mindset. Great players do whatever it takes to win, especially using their teammates to the team's advantage. With Tracy, it was always T-Mac first, then the team. At least that's the impression he gave out at every opportunity. He was the leading scorer in the league for two years, but those teams were terrible. So rather than help them become better, he demanded to be traded. He was warmly welcomed in Houston and given every chance to succeed. The Rockets surrounded him with a great center and as fine a cast of role-playing warriors as has ever been on an NBA team, yet he still could not win. Why not? Injuries certainly played a part. He was never healthy for a full year. But mostly, players didn't rally around McGrady. They were not as convinced of his stardom as he was. He was their best player, but he was never their leader.

Now the problem is, how do you trade him? He is the third highest paid player in the NBA. To make a trade, the salaries of the players involved must fall within 125% plus $100,000 of each other and must fit under the salary cap for both teams. Players that make even close to that kind of money are superstars, critical to their teams and not touchable. That means they would have to trade for a combination of players, most of whom could not help the Rockets this season and could affect team chemistry. This is a hard deal to make. The Rockets don't want to take on any large long-term contracts because they want to have space under the salary cap to make a pitch for a big-name player this off-season. And what an off-season it will be! Among the available free agents will be Joe Johnson (ATL), LeBron James (CLE), Dirk Nowitzki (DAL), Kobe Bryant (LAL), Dwyane Wade (MIA), Amare Stoudamire (PHO) and Chris Bosh (TOR). Put any one of those players beside Yao Ming and the aforementioned cast of overachievers and you have an instant championship contender. Houston is lucky to have Daryl Morey at the helm at this point in time. He has shown the patience to not make long-term deals for short-term gain. On a budget, he has put together a team that is one or two players from the NBA finals.

Texas does not have a state income tax. Isn't that interesting, LeBron? Dwyane? Chris? Tell your agents to give Daryl a call.

Gimme a Break!

Every once in a while, the Rocket's schedule cuts them a little slack. It's hard to say that a back-to-back on the road which includes Cleveland tomorrow night is a break, but at least the lead-in game should be a breeze. The Rockets face the hopeless and hapless New Jersey Nets tonight. I can't remember a worse team in modern history. 2-27 is about as bad as it gets. If the Nets were a horse, the league would shoot them.

No Way-fer

Cancel the last post. Von Wafer failed his physical and will not sign with the Rockets. Von first tried to sign on with Memphis, but according to the Memphis Commercial Appeal, the Grizzlies opted not to sign him after a physical revealed pre-existing back and hip injuries . Apparently, the Rockets found the same problems. I will not lose any sleep over Wafer not returning to the Houston Rockets, but I do wish him the best in his struggles against his injuries and his future career.

To fill the open roster spot created by Chase Budinger's ankle injury, the Rockets have signed Mike Harris of the Rio Grande Valley Vipers. Harris is a former Rice University star that has bounced around through training camps and the NBADL since he went undrafted in 2005. He played in 17 regular season games and 3 playoff games with the Rockets in 2008. A 6' 6", 240 pound forward, he averaged 25.3 ppg and 7.1 rpg in ten games this season for the Vipers.

The signing is considered a "Gatorade Call-up", under which any D-League player can cancel his NBADL contract to sign with an NBA team. Only players that are in their first or second season may be kept under contract with the parent NBA team while playing for their minor league affiliate. This is an excellent example of why the Rockets entered into the first "hybrid" affiliation with a minor-league team. They have a stable of players available for fill-in duty that can be closely monitored and are being coached in the same style as the Rockets. For more on the Vipers and their NBA affiliation, see their web site at http://www.nba.com/dleague/riograndevalley/index_main.html?hp+1

The Prodigal Son Returns

Von Wafer is coming back to Houston. According to the Rockets, he bought out his contract with Olympiakis (Greece) for $1.2 million to return to the NBA. His greek contract was for $1.8 mil per year. European League sources, however, say that after playing in only three games, Wafer was being ditched by Olympiakis because he did not fit in with the European style of play, i.e., fundamentals over athleticism. Wafer wanted to hold out for his entire contract amount, but apparently realized that was not going to happen.

"This is great," Wafer told Fox Houston's Mark Berman on Tuesday evening. "Oh my goodness, I'm so happy, I'm about to start crying. I want to play in the NBA. I want to play for the Rockets. I love Houston and I love their fans." If that's true, why did he first negotiate to come back to the NBA with Memphis? When that fell through, he decided on Houston. Adelman and Wafer had words last season in the playoffs. Did Wafer come back with hat in hand? If he has any sense at all, he did.

This has implications for the Rockets beyond just adding depth, Rick Adelman's reasoning for the signing. Some of the possibilities:

• The team is not that high on Jermaine Taylor. He may either be outa here or a candidate for the Vipers.
• Tracy McGrady is not in their long-term plans.
• Chase Budinger is not perceived as the answer for the 1st or 2nd guy off the bench.
• Management doesn't see this Rockets basketball team as a title contender.

Readers may remember that I shed no tears when Von left after last season. I felt that he and Ron Artest were everything that was wrong with the Rockets. They were both uncoachable ball hogs. The team won some games, but it was a hard team to love. This year's team is imminently lovable because of their share-the-wealth attitude. If Wafer can get into the right frame of mind, listen to the coaches and do the little things that help a team win, he could be a positive factor for the Rockets. He is definitely fun to watch and has skills that will fit in with the Rockets' new style. It will be great to see Wafer and Kyle Lowry running the break off the bench.

Wafer will sign with the Rockets for much less than his Greek contract. This could be his last chance. If he doesn't adapt to the Rockets new team-first style, his career may be over.

Here's to You, Coach!

On paper, every single Rockets player is inconsistent. The stats are all over the board almost every night with no one player dominating the box score night in and night out. Yet the Rockets continue to win games. How is that possible?

On most good teams, the +/- stats show a wide disparity between the star players and the backups. The +/- stat, for those who don't know, shows the ratio of how many points one team scores versus the other team while a given player is in the game. A positive number means that the player's team outscored the opposing team while he playing. When looked at on a per minute basis over a significant number of games, it can be a very telling statistic. On the Lakers, for instance, the difference between the best player and the worst is over half a point per minute. On the Rockets, the variance is only .15 points per minute. That tells us that either there is very little difference in the quality of players at the top and bottom of the Rockets' lineup or that they are being well-taught and well-utilized by the coaches. The latter is the case.

This post is a toast to Rick Adelman and his coaching staff. It is not an accident that the top four Rockets players in the +/- stats are backups, led by Kyle Lowry. Adelman is a genius at matchups and substitution patterns. He has a great feel for the game as it unfolds and listens to his assistant coaches and scouts to be as well-prepared as he can be. He and his assistants have every man on the team on the same page, keeping goals, egos and relationships in crystal clear perspective. Trevor Ariza got in Aaron Brooks' face after Brooks made a bone-headed play at the end of regulation in Dallas - and what was the fallout? Nada. Brooks said, no big deal. Ariza was right, I screwed up. Just heat of the moment stuff. We all get along. What would have happened if Artest had gotten in Kobe's face or vice versa? I shudder to think.

Let's also not forget that Adelman was instrumental in putting together this lineup of role players whose whole is far greater than the sum of its parts. Yes, Daryl and Les were involved too, but this is not their toast.

This team is a testimonial to the talent, skills and experience of Rick Adelman. That includes his ability to find, hire and keep top assistant coaches. Adelman is one huge reason that Les Alexander continues to sell Rockets tickets without a star in sight. Here's to you, Coach! Merry Christmas!

Mac Ain't Back

Tracy McGrady made a showing in both Tuesday and Wednesday's games. He looked like he was walking through molasses compared to the rest of the team. This is nothing new for T-Mac. For his entire career he played in a half-court offense where he was the offensive focal point, jogging down the court, then moving around only sufficiently to get open enough to get the ball. He then drove around a pic and either took a jump shot or made a slashing move to the basket. In recent years with the Rockets, he even added passing off to the open man when he was double-teamed, earning a respectable number of assists. Unfortunately for this Rockets team, that's not enough.

This year's Rockets run. They don't know how to jog. They are committed to an up-tempo, unselfish, ball-movement game. They are exciting to watch and even win games. And even without a star player in the bunch, they sell basketball tickets. If Tracy wants to get on the bandwagon, he's going to have to do more than just speed up. He's going to have to change his style. Whether he can do it or not is a huge question, with major implications.

When Rick Adelman let McGrady suit up, the Rockets began to pay his salary. The insurance policy only paid when he was too injured to play. The seven minutes per game he's playing now is costing Les Alexander a fortune. And they can't really trade the guy. They would have to take on another contract almost as big for a player that some other team is trying to get rid of. So the clock is ticking. Can he help the team this year? If not, the Rocket's won't re-sign him and no other team will offer even close to his current maximum contract. If so, he can write his own ticket next year. He has every reason to give it his best to fit in.

It's all up to you now, big guy.