Monday, November 30, 2009

Beware the Ides of December

In fact, beware the whole damn month. This is going to be a tough one. The Rockets are only 3-4 over the last couple of weeks, but the notable part of that record is that they lost to every really good team they faced in that span - and they will face a bunch more in December.

To begin with, December will be a busier than average month with 16 games, 10 of those on the road. It will include 5 back-to-backs, 4 of which are road games. They face teams with a combined record (as of today) of 141-135. Subtract New Jersey's woeful 0-17 from that and you've got a tough row to hoe. They will face Portland, Denver, Dallas (twice), Orlando and Cleveland (twice) this month. Most of the other opponents are mediocre, but they won't play many dogs with fleas.

December will tell the tale of the season for Houston. So here's the prognosis: If they beat every team they face that is currently under .500 and lose the rest, they will go 8-8 and I will consider it a very succesful month. Any better than that and I may have to get my hopes up for the Rockets to make the playoffs.

Saturday, November 21, 2009

Chemistry

I LOVE this team! I cannot remember the last time I watched a team with better teamwork and chemistry. They play the game as it was meant to be played - with a team-first attitude and ultimate hustle. They set picks, box out, play defense - all the things that make it possible to win against superior athletes.

Houston's starting lineup averages only 6' 6", with no starter over 6' 9", probably the shortest team in the league, but they average more points and rebounds than their opponents. Just as importantly, they never quit. With less than two minutes to play last night, the Rockets trailed by nine against the hottest team in the league, yet came back to tie the game before losing on a last second dunk by Atlanta's Josh Smith. You gotta love a team that refuses to collapse, even in the direst of circumstances. It's like they understand that we pay good money for tickets to watch them and they care that we are entertained, even if they don't win.

The next big question: How will Tracy McGrady's return affect that chemistry? A couple of years ago, Tracy had a good Rockets team around him and he did not hesitate to give up his scoring numbers for team success. But that was with a half-court team. These Rockets like to run and that has never fit McGrady's style. For the first time in his career, in order to contribute, Tracy McGrady will have to change. He can be a huge advantage or an Allen Iverson. It's really up to Tracy.

Friday, November 13, 2009

Dorsey to the D-League

The farm system is finally in play in the Valley. Forward/Center Joey Dorsey was assigned to the Rio Grande Valley Vipers today to work on his game. Last week, Garrett Temple signed with the Vipers as well, but as a regional allocation candidate. Dorsey is available for assignment because by NBADL rules, first and second-year players who are still on a 15-man NBA roster may be assigned to their affiliate D-League team. I am still not sure why Dorsey has not gotten any playing time this season, since he owned the boards in the pre-season and Summer League and seemed poised to play a significant role this year for the Rocklets.

I am similarly confused as to why the team waived Pops Mensah-Bonsu today. Not so much that they waived him, but why now and why at the same time they sent Dorsey down? The moves seem to leave the Rockets with a dearth of depth at the big positions. Only Hayes, Scola, Andersen and Landry are legitimate inside players. Brian Cook is tall, but he plays more like a shooting forward that a big man.

The moves also reduce the roster to only 13 players in Houston, including Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming. That's just 11 guys in uniform. McGrady will almost certainly be activated within the next couple of weeks. Jermaine Taylor has only seen spot garbage time so far and McGrady's return makes the probability of Taylor sightings even more remote. Frankly, Jermaine seems like an excellent candidate for the Vipers as well. You don't get better by sitting on the bench.

Sunday, November 8, 2009

Iverson

Allen Iverson has now decided to take an indefinite leave of absence from the Memphis Grizzlies in a pout over starting status and playing time.

Allen Iverson represents all that is wrong with professional sports. He looks like a thug and acts like a spoiled brat. Throughout his career, Iverson has been a me-first player, determined to get his stats and his status first and foremost over the success of his team. He finally wore out his welcome in Philidelphia, then Denver, Detroit and now Memphis.

Allen Iverson will never be on a team that wins a championship. Championship teams have team-first players. The man has talent. I enjoy watching talent, but I don't specifically admire it. Players don't decide to have talent, but they do (or too often don't) decide to make the most of that talent. Iverson chose to use his talent in a team-oriented sport, but refuses to operate in a team environment. He has destroyed the chemistry of every team that has hired him. I will be very surprised if he finds another team stupid enough to make the same mistake.

Sunday, November 1, 2009

The Key Word is Progress

The Rockets clearly stumbled out of the gate in Portland, losing the first three quarters by 19 points. They eventually remembered that they were an NBA team and won the fourth quarter by ten. I intentionally waited to make this post until the rematch in Houston last night to get a better feel for whether or not the Portland debacle was a bellwether game or just a west coast brain-fart. I have long believed that west coast teams have a home court advantage over other time zone teams because it is difficult for athletes conditioned to get to bed early to be out playing basketball at midnight. Get to bed early, you say? I know that some high-profile ball players read the playbook by the light of the jukebox (to quote an old saying about Kenny Stabler), but most are well-conditioned, disciplined family men. They didn't get to the top of their profession by playing while hung-over.

Trevor Ariza, Carl Landy and even Shane Battier all had bad games in Portland, but the team as a whole came together to pull out a close victory against Golden State the next night. Ariza even showed signs of not just fitting in, but becoming an integral cog in the Rockets' machine. Last night in their home opener, the starters really clicked and the bench held their own against a bigger and more talented Portland team. That's why basketball is such a great game. The team that plays well together - with a team-first attitude - and sticks to a well-designed game plan can still win, regardless of overall athletic talent. It's been nice to see a team that listens and executes, a distinct departure from the Ron Artest/Von Wafer attitude of last year.

Apparently, Rick Adelman intends to go with a nine man rotation, including David Andersen, Kyle Lowry, Chase Budinger and Carl Lowry coming off the bench. Playing time seems to be based on matchups and how well the starters are playing that night. Second round draft pick Jermaine Taylor has yet to appear in his first NBA game. Neither Brian Cook nor Joey Dorsey has not gotten into a game either, and Dorsey was not even in the active lineup last night. That is something of a surprise because he was expected to play a big part in the rebounding game this season. Either Addleman is put off by his inadequate defensive play or his foot has just not completely healed yet. The two issues may be related, too. Cook is a journeyman, to be used only in case of emergency.

Sunday, October 25, 2009

Prediction Time

It's that time of year again, the time where everyone decides who will prosper and who will falter in the NBA. Hell, I'm not even sure why they play the games. We scribes have it all figured out by now. I guess the owners feel like they have to go ahead and have a season just to make a little money. Here's my take on the final standings:

Eastern Conference Playoffs:
  1. Cleveland
  2. Boston
  3. Orlando
  4. Chicago
  5. Phildelphia
  6. New York
  7. Atlanta
  8. Detroit

Western Conference Playoffs:

  1. Los Angeles
  2. San Antonio
  3. Denver
  4. Dallas
  5. Portland
  6. Golden State
  7. Phoenix
  8. New Orleans

Eastern Conference Champion: Cleveland Cavaliers

Western Conference Champion: Los Angeles Lakers

NBA Champion: Cleveland Cavaliers

Readers may notice that the Rockets are not included in the playoffs. I will offer one proviso on that prognostication. If Tracy McGrady comes back at even 75% of his former self, they will unseat one of the bottom three teams on my list. If that happens, they will lose in the first or second round, depending on the matchup.

One other prediction for the home team. They will have a losing record (barring outstanding play by McGrady), but will score more total points over the course of the entire season than the total points of all their opponents. I say that because I believe that this is a very scrappy team that never gives up and will not suffer many blowout losses. Close games in all their losses and a few big wins will make this prediction come true. The nature of this team is also the reason I am looking forward to the season. I appreciate guts and teamwork, both of which should be abundant on the Houston Rockets.

Sunday, October 18, 2009

Pre-season Progress Report

Houston has a problem. Make that several problems: inexperience, inconsistency and a general lack of star quality. Let's address these one at a time.

In the last couple of years, Houston has gone from one of the most veteran teams in the league to one of the youngest. This was out of necessity in many ways. When Yao went out for the season and Tracy's career became iffy, the team was faced with a decision. They could acquire a decent player or two through trade or free agency or rebuild with younger players with potential and hope to get lucky with a couple of them. Then when Tracy's contract expires and Yao returns healthy next season, sign a superstar to complete the picture. If Tracy comes back healthy, he could be that superstar. I agreed with the choice they made, especially since the only good players available in free agency were overpriced and any trade possibilites were for mediocre players with long-term contracts.

The inconsistency is to be expected with all the personnel changes. Adelman is not only trying to integrate important pieces into the puzzle, he's not sure yet which pieces to use. There are seven "bigs" on the roster and except for Landry and Scola, none have stood out. Without a true center, all of the big men will have to be flexible enough to play either position, at least at times. There are also six "wings" to man the small forward/shooting guard position and again, only Battier and Ariza are sure bets to make the squad. Then there's the question of how many point guards to carry. Brooks and Lowry are sure things, but since none of the wings are profficient at the point, do they keep Conroy for insurance? In six pre-season games, Brooks has started five, but no other player has started more than three. Eleven players are averaging between 7.4 and 12.3 ppg, with no one over that. With all the experimentation Rick Adelman has had to do to find his team, inconsistency in the natural result.

Analyzing the talent pool is not that hard. Only four of the Rockets were drafted in the first round and three of those were taken with the 24th pick or higher. Only Shane Battier was considered a blue-chip player at #6, and he is getting a little banged up and long in the tooth. All of the Rockets have talent, but few are well-rounded. A starting lineup of Andersen, Scola, Battier, Ariza and Brooks is not very intimidating on paper and their backups all have holes in their games. The draft is hardly infallible, but it is a good indication of overall ability and the Rockets come up way short.

With all the problems listed above, the Rockets do have a couple of advantages. Their front office and coaching staff are among the best in the league. If anyone can pull this team together, it is Rick Adelman. He has made a career of making mediocre teams good. Can he make them great? Sorry. Not this year. But let's hope he can at least make them fun to watch.

Saturday, October 3, 2009

Forget McCants - For Now

"Never mind." -Emily Litella

The Rockets abandoned plans to sign Rashad McCants due to an "abdominal injury." I'm not sure what that means, but it sounds like they're sick of him already. According to his agent, McCants suffered the injury while working out in Miami a few days before camp opened. Daryl Morey did not eliminate the possibility that he may be signed in the future when his condition improves.

In order to get enough healthy bodies in camp to have full speed practices, the Rockets signed Romel Beck, a wingman from UNLV who last played for the Mexican national team. Unfortunately, Beck drew criticism similar to McCants during his Mexico stint regarding his unwillingness to play a team game and was ultimately removed from the team during the FIBA Americas championship. He played for the Spurs in this year's Summer League, but was not offered an invitation to training camp. I refer you to the last paragraph of my McCants post. Just change the name to Beck.