Defensive Shortcomings

0-3 is a lousy start. The reason seems ridiculously transparent. The Rockets can't stop anybody. Why not?

In the first half of last season, the team made it's mark with a determined defense and a team attitude that nobody was going to bully them. Yao may have been gone and Tracy couldn't play, but the Rockets were going to play hard-nosed D, if nothing else. I've been a devoted fan of the Rockets since they came here from San Diego, but I fell in love with that team. Then came "the trade."

Carl Landry went away and Kevin Martin came in. Landry had his issues, but he played with heart. He fit in with the team and inspired others. Martin has never been known for his defense and just never seemed to mesh with the Rocket's style of play. This year, he's averaged 25 ppg, but has shot only 41% (under 30% from behind the arc) , with only one steal in three games. Opposing guards have burned the Rockets to the ground.

If Martin doesn't knuckle down pretty soon, Courtney Lee will deserve a shot. At least he likes to play defense. Offense is fun to watch and sells tickets, but defense wins championships - and inspires teammates. That's my take.

It's Here!

The regular season begins in a couple of hours and I can tell you, it's about damn time! I love this game!

It's time for my annual preseason predictions. The Rockets got better this year:

• Courtney Lee will be at least as good as Trevor Ariza was last year, if not better.
• Yao Ming will stay vertical for a full season (though he may miss a game or two here and there) and he will be good to go for the playoffs. His presence alone makes this team 5 games better. It would be more if he wasn't restricted to 24 minutes per game.
• Aaron Brooks is just coming into his prime and is constantly gaining experience.
• Chase Budinger will have a breakout season and show marked improvement.
• Kyle Lowry is only getting better and may be the best guard on the team once he gets healthy.
• Patrick Patterson shows great potential for the future but barring injuries at the forward position, will not see all that much action this season.
• Ish Smith may be faster than even Brooks, yet shows fine court judgement for a rookie point guard. He would play big minutes on any team that did not already have Brooks and Lowry. I hope the Rockets send him to the Valley for some seasoning in the Adelman system.
• Battier says he feels fine, but he is getting a little long in the tooth to maintain the defensive brilliance he once enjoyed. He will be just about as good as he was a year ago.
• Luis Scola is in a similar situation, though a bit younger than Shane. Scola will be as dependable as ever.
• Chuck Hayes is returning to his natural position to backup Scola at power forward. He is an over-achiever that inspires a team. Hayes will have a fine year.

There are several question marks for the 2010-11 season:

• Jermaine Taylor has yet to show the discipline and consistency necessary in an NBA player. I don't see that changing.
• Jarred Jeffries is a journeyman and I have serious doubts that he will ever get beyond that status. He was aquired to make the McGrady trade work and has only one year remaining on his overpriced contract.
• Jordan Hill has potential, which is a kind way of saying "You ain't done squat yet." Adelman seems frustrated with him. Hill would benefit from some time with the Vipers.
• Brad Miller is getting old and was never fast, but he may fit in perfectly with this team and coaching staff. Brad will be important to the team this year. He is a distinct improvement over David Andersen and his experience makes him almost another coach on the court.
• That brings us to the biggest question mark of all and the most important: Kevin Martin. Martin can score in bunches or shoot himself out of the game. He gets the occassional steal, but often disappoints on defense. Whether or not the Rockets go far in the playoffs this season depends a lot on Kevin achieving a level of consistency and developing the Rockets' win-at-all-costs attitude. I predict he will be good, but not great.

Final analysis? The Rockets will win 50 games and make the conference finals, but the Lakers will ultimately beat Miami for the NBA title.

Courtney Lee

The Rockets traded Trevor Ariza for Courtney Lee. There were two other teams and other players involved, but that's what it came down to for the Rockets. Smart move? Yes.

Lee is a role player in the mold of Ariza, but with more upside. Ariza proved last season that he cannot carry a team, but was being paid as a star at over $6 million per season. Lee makes only $1.3 mil and is almost as good as Ariza already. The Rockets also got a $6 million trade exception and Les Alexander has already given Daryl Morey the green light to spend it. Let's face it - championships are won with money, and this gives Morey some flexibility.

As does Ariza, Courtney has his flaws. He does not score well off the dribble and as Martin's backup, he will be called on to do that. Lee shoots 83% from the line, so I'm sure Adelman will be working with him to get him there more often. He is a good set-shooter and can hit the three, especially when the defense collapses on a driving Brooks or sags down on Yao and Scola. Mostly, though, Courtney Lee plays defense. Defense doesn't pay as well, but it wins games.

So the gameplan looks like this. Start Martin and Battier. Offense and defense. Bring in subs Lee and Budinger. Defense and offense. As long as you have both roles on the floor, you can always shut down an opposing scorer.

Ariza is a good player, but he is a luxury. An all-around player that specializes in defense is a boon to an already great team, as he was to the Lakers. But he is not a go-to guy and therefore not worth $6 mil. Good decision, Daryl.

Is This The Team?

Barring a trade, the team looks like this:

Point guard: Kyle Lowry, Aaron Brooks
Shooting guard: Kevin Martin, Jermaine Taylor
Guard/Forward: Trevor Ariza, Shane Battier
Small Forward: Chase Budinger, Mike Harris
Power Forward: Jordan Hill, Alexander Johnson, Patrick Patterson, Jared Jeffries
Forward/Center: Luis Scola, Chuck Hayes, Brad Miller
Center: Yao Ming, David Andersen

That's two players too many. Alexander Johnson is a long shot to make the team at a crowded position, so that leaves one more that has to go. Jermaine Taylor has talent, but doesn't seem to want to play within a system. He scores points, but the team is not better with him in the game. Jared Jeffries is a journeyman with a star's contract. That makes him hard to move and even harder to eat his contract and waive him. Rookie Patrick Patterson has a promising future and there is no way Morey would give up on him before at least two seasons have passed. David Andersen served his purpose last season as a stopgap for Yao, but he will never be an elite center in the NBA. With five players that can play center, David may be the odd man out.

Is the Rockets' core roster set now? Most all the free agents have signed with other teams. Are there any deals out there that could be made? Sure. Everyone is always looking to make a move. With this team, assuming Yao plays significant minutes, the Rockets will make the playoffs. They will even get to at least the second round. But this is not a championship team. Yet.

Welcome Brad!

The Rockets signed Brad Miller to a three year deal to back up Yao Ming at center. Was this a good signing? Absolutely! Miller was one of two centers that I would have been glad to see coming. The other was Zdrunas Ilgauskas. Both are in the last few years of a serviceable career and can still be productive either as starters or back-ups. Shaq would have been fun to watch, but he would cost way too much and does not have the work ethic to fit into this group of over-achievers.

Brad had his best years in Sacramento under Rockets head coach Rick Adelman. In Adelman's high post offense, Miller averaged about 20% higher than his career numbers in every category. Coach and player got along beautifully and remain friends. This was a good choice and bodes well for the next few years. Good job, Rick and Daryl.

Cheat Codes

LeBron, Dwyane and Chris decided that leading a good team to greatness was too tough. So they chose to go online, search for the hacker cheat codes and enable "God mode." Rather than accepting the challenge of winning fair and square, they instead just lowered the bar and made winning easier.

This is exactly what the salary cap was designed to prevent, but there are so many loopholes, exceptions and back-door deals, that if you have enough good lawyers and accountants, a way can be found to stack the deck. Let's hope Mark Cuban can convince the rest of the owners to amend the collective bargaining agreement to make it impossible to buy a championship.

I certainly don't blame Pat Riley or the Heat ownership for trying to get the best team they can, but my opinion of the players involved has gone down a bit this week.

Bosh to Miami

Chris Bosh announced today that he will team up with Dwyane Wade in Miami. Nice try, Daryl. You can't win 'em all.

Now what? Who's left of the free agents that could help the Rockets? LeBron? Ain't happening. The reasons are irrelevant at this point. He would be perfect for Houston, but then again he would be perfect for almost everybody. Nowitzki is staying in Dallas. Johnson is staying in Atlanta. Stoudemire is going to New York. Boozer agreed to terms with Chicago today. Gay is staying in Memphis.

The rest are second tier players, some of which could help the Rockets, but none of which will set the world on fire. Udonis Haslem may want out of Miami now that Bosh is coming, but the Rockets already have Battier at that position. David Lee is a fine, underappreciated player that could make a great backup for Yao, but it's unlikely he will want to go to a team that won't promise to make him a starter. Wouldn't it be fun if Shaq would come here to back up Yao? He's available, and if the Cavs re-sign LeBron, they may not be able to afford Shaq, assuming they still want him.

Hang in there, Daryl. You're going to have to do it with role players again. Pick a couple that will bust their ass for the team and I'll stick by you.

It's On!

Free agency began at 11:00 PM last night and the jockeying for most of the greatest players in the game begins today. Daryl Morey has already visited with Chris Bosh in Dallas to let him know that the Rockets are more than interested in his services (like Bosh did not already know that). I love Bosh as a player, I just hate to see Luis Scola coming off the bench. In a sign and trade deal, the Rockets will have to give up 20-something million dollars in salaries to get Bosh and I fear that much money may come from areas that will leave them very strong at power forward, but weak at other positions. Unless, of course, Scola is a part of that trade. I would hate to see that because $ for $, Scola is a bargain and his salary will not scratch the surface in a trade for Bosh. If it was just a straight swap of Scola for Bosh, well, there would be no discussion. But it would be some combination of Scola, Ariza, Martin, Battier, Jeffries, Lowry, etc. totalling over $20 mil.

Have fun Daryl, but be careful. Don't give away the ranch to sell some season tickets.