Sunday, October 25, 2009

Prediction Time

It's that time of year again, the time where everyone decides who will prosper and who will falter in the NBA. Hell, I'm not even sure why they play the games. We scribes have it all figured out by now. I guess the owners feel like they have to go ahead and have a season just to make a little money. Here's my take on the final standings:

Eastern Conference Playoffs:
  1. Cleveland
  2. Boston
  3. Orlando
  4. Chicago
  5. Phildelphia
  6. New York
  7. Atlanta
  8. Detroit

Western Conference Playoffs:

  1. Los Angeles
  2. San Antonio
  3. Denver
  4. Dallas
  5. Portland
  6. Golden State
  7. Phoenix
  8. New Orleans

Eastern Conference Champion: Cleveland Cavaliers

Western Conference Champion: Los Angeles Lakers

NBA Champion: Cleveland Cavaliers

Readers may notice that the Rockets are not included in the playoffs. I will offer one proviso on that prognostication. If Tracy McGrady comes back at even 75% of his former self, they will unseat one of the bottom three teams on my list. If that happens, they will lose in the first or second round, depending on the matchup.

One other prediction for the home team. They will have a losing record (barring outstanding play by McGrady), but will score more total points over the course of the entire season than the total points of all their opponents. I say that because I believe that this is a very scrappy team that never gives up and will not suffer many blowout losses. Close games in all their losses and a few big wins will make this prediction come true. The nature of this team is also the reason I am looking forward to the season. I appreciate guts and teamwork, both of which should be abundant on the Houston Rockets.

Sunday, October 18, 2009

Pre-season Progress Report

Houston has a problem. Make that several problems: inexperience, inconsistency and a general lack of star quality. Let's address these one at a time.

In the last couple of years, Houston has gone from one of the most veteran teams in the league to one of the youngest. This was out of necessity in many ways. When Yao went out for the season and Tracy's career became iffy, the team was faced with a decision. They could acquire a decent player or two through trade or free agency or rebuild with younger players with potential and hope to get lucky with a couple of them. Then when Tracy's contract expires and Yao returns healthy next season, sign a superstar to complete the picture. If Tracy comes back healthy, he could be that superstar. I agreed with the choice they made, especially since the only good players available in free agency were overpriced and any trade possibilites were for mediocre players with long-term contracts.

The inconsistency is to be expected with all the personnel changes. Adelman is not only trying to integrate important pieces into the puzzle, he's not sure yet which pieces to use. There are seven "bigs" on the roster and except for Landry and Scola, none have stood out. Without a true center, all of the big men will have to be flexible enough to play either position, at least at times. There are also six "wings" to man the small forward/shooting guard position and again, only Battier and Ariza are sure bets to make the squad. Then there's the question of how many point guards to carry. Brooks and Lowry are sure things, but since none of the wings are profficient at the point, do they keep Conroy for insurance? In six pre-season games, Brooks has started five, but no other player has started more than three. Eleven players are averaging between 7.4 and 12.3 ppg, with no one over that. With all the experimentation Rick Adelman has had to do to find his team, inconsistency in the natural result.

Analyzing the talent pool is not that hard. Only four of the Rockets were drafted in the first round and three of those were taken with the 24th pick or higher. Only Shane Battier was considered a blue-chip player at #6, and he is getting a little banged up and long in the tooth. All of the Rockets have talent, but few are well-rounded. A starting lineup of Andersen, Scola, Battier, Ariza and Brooks is not very intimidating on paper and their backups all have holes in their games. The draft is hardly infallible, but it is a good indication of overall ability and the Rockets come up way short.

With all the problems listed above, the Rockets do have a couple of advantages. Their front office and coaching staff are among the best in the league. If anyone can pull this team together, it is Rick Adelman. He has made a career of making mediocre teams good. Can he make them great? Sorry. Not this year. But let's hope he can at least make them fun to watch.

Saturday, October 3, 2009

Forget McCants - For Now

"Never mind." -Emily Litella

The Rockets abandoned plans to sign Rashad McCants due to an "abdominal injury." I'm not sure what that means, but it sounds like they're sick of him already. According to his agent, McCants suffered the injury while working out in Miami a few days before camp opened. Daryl Morey did not eliminate the possibility that he may be signed in the future when his condition improves.

In order to get enough healthy bodies in camp to have full speed practices, the Rockets signed Romel Beck, a wingman from UNLV who last played for the Mexican national team. Unfortunately, Beck drew criticism similar to McCants during his Mexico stint regarding his unwillingness to play a team game and was ultimately removed from the team during the FIBA Americas championship. He played for the Spurs in this year's Summer League, but was not offered an invitation to training camp. I refer you to the last paragraph of my McCants post. Just change the name to Beck.